One of the topics we like to revisit time and time again is our calculation of the inflation, measured in CPI, that the market is expecting over various timeframes. We most recently looked at inflation expectations at the end of August, and noted a recent uptick. In fact, you don’t even have to wait for […]
One series we’ve been tracking for quite some time now (but not since June) is the market’s implied inflation expectations in the United States. Essentially, when you subtract the yield on inflation adjusted instruments from the Treasury (which will track the CPI) from the yields on non protected securities, you’re polling the market on what […]
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” – Milton Friedman Smart guy, that Milton Friedman. I heard he won a Nobel Prize. There’s no Nobel Prize on my desk (yet), but I’m willing to strike down some of the current arguments about the coming hyperinflation, the current “under-reported” inflation, and even targeted hidden inflation […]
In this article, Cameron Daniels explains that the small decrease in poverty levels from 13.3% to 12.8% from 1967 to 2003 (36 years!) is not so bad as it initially seems as Simpson’s Paradox rears his ugly head.