On this page is a present value calculator, a term often abbreviated as PV. When dealing with future dollar amounts, a present value is an estimate of the current sum needed to equal some target amount when accounting for various risks. Future quantities deal with both inflationary (or deflationary) pressures, opportunity costs, and other risks […]
As long time readers must know by now, we occasionally like to foray into the realm of soothsayers and crystal ball gazers and make wild predictions for the closing price of the world-famous S&P 500! (We also consider ourselves the sacred keepers of the S&P 500 Dividend Return Calculator – a little S&P obsessed?) How […]
If you’ve been around a while… you know all about this series. Approximately one entry per month where we look at the way puts and calls are trading on the ETF SPY (a S&P 500 ETF), and use those to divine the future based on the disparity between those prices and where the stock is […]
There’s a few topics we like to return to now and again on this website – our “go-tos” if you will. A few years back we noted that options, although not instruments that we often use, are awesome since the price signals they give us let us estimate three different things: Direction – Will a […]
You may have heard of ‘theta’ or ‘time-value’ decay, but in this article we’re going to play it close to the vest with an illustrated example. I recently showed you the results of a “failed” model based on implied prices for an S&P 500 ETF, SPY. We’re going to dedicate a few more precious time […]
We try to wear our brains on our sleeves (I should trademark that) when it comes to some of the innovations we’ve rolled out on the site. If you check out our Calculators and Visualizations page, we’ve got everything from historic S&P returns to predictions of how noise levels affect real estate values. However, one […]
Wow, we haven’t done one of these for a while. And what are these, you may ask? A weird little property of options pricing, actually – you can back out predicted prices of a stock on a particular day by simply looking at options prices. The ‘most likely’ price, at least dictated by the market, […]
Can you believe it’s already been a month since we looked into the future and told you how the S&P 500 would close (read: looked at Yahoo! and told you how contracts are trading). That means I’m back here today to act as the weather vane and show you which way the market winds are blowing. To those that have asked, I posted some methodology at the end. Peruse that and ask me any questions you have!
You all know what time it is! It’s time to parse the option trader tea leaves and guess where the options market thinks we are headed in the near to somewhat not near future. As always, we are taking options data from Yahoo, and using contracts which trade more than .5% of the daily volume to make our targets. We’re also using the ticker SPY (a S&P 500 ETF) as our proxy for the S&P – all numbers you see are multiplied by 10 to get the conversion to actual closing prices.
Every options expiration day (of which Friday was one…) brings another one of these sweet predicting the S&P 500 articles, where I use my ultra-top-secret volatility calculator to tell you where the market is predicting the S&P 500 will move in the near future!