As long time readers must know by now, we occasionally like to foray into the realm of soothsayers and crystal ball gazers and make wild predictions for the closing price of the world-famous S&P 500! (We also consider ourselves the sacred keepers of the S&P 500 Dividend Return Calculator – a little S&P obsessed?) How […]
If you’ve been around a while… you know all about this series. Approximately one entry per month where we look at the way puts and calls are trading on the ETF SPY (a S&P 500 ETF), and use those to divine the future based on the disparity between those prices and where the stock is […]
There’s a few topics we like to return to now and again on this website – our “go-tos” if you will. A few years back we noted that options, although not instruments that we often use, are awesome since the price signals they give us let us estimate three different things: Direction – Will a […]
We try to wear our brains on our sleeves (I should trademark that) when it comes to some of the innovations we’ve rolled out on the site. If you check out our Calculators and Visualizations page, we’ve got everything from historic S&P returns to predictions of how noise levels affect real estate values. However, one […]
Wow, we haven’t done one of these for a while. And what are these, you may ask? A weird little property of options pricing, actually – you can back out predicted prices of a stock on a particular day by simply looking at options prices. The ‘most likely’ price, at least dictated by the market, […]
Can you believe it’s already been a month since we looked into the future and told you how the S&P 500 would close (read: looked at Yahoo! and told you how contracts are trading). That means I’m back here today to act as the weather vane and show you which way the market winds are blowing. To those that have asked, I posted some methodology at the end. Peruse that and ask me any questions you have!
Don’t Quit Your Day Job is a site which varies between many types of articles – Personal Finance, Politics, Investing, Economics, Random. One of those categories, Investing, has been given short shrift in order to make way for more articles in the other categories. Today we plant a stake; ‘Investing’ will now have a featured article monthly, where we’ll use options to try to determine the outlook for the S&P 500 in the near future. Since this is the first article, let’s discuss the method we will use to predict movement.