It annoys us to no end that when people quote market returns, they generally will only use nominal returns, and ignore the effects of inflation. This discounts the way most of us live – when we take money out, we do so in order to spend at current market prices, not past prices. When we […]
Well, we just finished our longest series to date here on DQYDJ, about market valuation (and don’t be scared if you find this post after 2013 – the calculations are either still sound or you’re in some kind of a planet of the apes scenario. Good luck either way). Our conclusion? More than around 3% […]
DQYDJ: surprising our readers with yet another week where we submit articles to a carnival! Maybe we’ll keep it going this time.
It’s been two full market days since S&P cut the debt rating of the United States one notch from AAA to AA+… and for one day at least, it was looking like S&P had the stock market by the nose. Two days later we can finally take a look back at what happened since we’ve had two trading days, a rest in between, a Federal Reserve statement, and a speech from the President. To wit: the S&P 500 Index closed at 1199.38 on Friday, 1119.46 on Monday and 1172.53 on Tuesday.
My friend sent me an article the other day which really summarized my thoughts succinctly – he sent me this piece from Evan Newmark writing at the Wall Street Journal. If you haven’t noticed the crazy action in the stock market in recent weeks and days, let me be the bearer of bad news: the major US indicators are down from their yearly peaks. You’ve probably lost some money on paper, even. Between oil in the Gulf, the Greece Drama, and even North Korea, there is a lot to be worried about. Here’s the thing – these are all known unknowns, and generally priced into the stock market already.
What should you make about the Mark Hulbert article claiming that top market timing newsletters are bullish heading into the new year? After a 27.76% increase in the value of the S&P 500 (not counting dividends) in 2009, how much further does the stock market yet have to run? And what does a bullish consensus among market timers mean, exactly?