My friend sent me an article the other day which really summarized my thoughts succinctly - he sent me this piece from Evan Newmark writing at the Wall Street Journal. If you haven't noticed the crazy action in the stock market in recent weeks and days, let me be the bearer of bad news: the major US indicators are down from their yearly peaks. You've probably lost some money on paper, even. Between oil in the Gulf, the Greece Drama, and even North Korea, there is a lot to be worried about. Here's the thing - these are all known unknowns, and generally priced into the stock market already.

I haven't recently taken a look at what the Treasury market is telling us about inflation... but that's now changed, and I'm here to share with you. The market predicts continued smooth sailing on the currency front. My method is the very crude subtract real treasury yields from the yield curve. Currency stability is probably here to stay in the meantime, what with the only reasonable alternative in flux and everything... and the market reflects that truth.

Carnivals (2) and links (5) for the week!

Not: new articles when I get my new video card and monitor. Let's go FedEx!

Articles and carnivals for the week!

In Economics, there is a concept of 'leading' and 'lagging' indicators. 'Leading' indicators predict economic activity in the future- they are statistics which give a decent idea how things will be soon. 'Lagging' indicators are the opposite; they signal performance in the recent past. Is it possible that there is a leading indicator of the economy that we all experience? According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, our spam email messages have become more bullish over the past few months.

Substitution and Income Effect: These two terms are very familiar to anybody who has taken an intermediate course in macroeconomics. With the recent articles regarding volunteerism and labor statistics, I thought that it was very timely to write on these two very important concepts.

Let's start with a thought experiment: if you were to receive a 10% increase in your hourly wage, would you increase, decrease, or maintain your hours worked? Believe it or not, any answer is correct, despite many assumptions regarding the positive slope of labor supply curves. The reason that any answer is correct lies in an understanding of substitution and income effects.

Carnivals and Links for the Week!

The "VAT", the so-called value-added tax, has received some attention here before at Don't Quit Your Day Job. Unfortunately for everyone, it probably will receive a bunch more in the future. Fresh off Paul Volker's comments to the New York Historical Society putting the VAT in play, the United States could be getting a VAT of its own. As pointed out in this very good article at Super-Economy, the US is the only county in the OECD that doesn't have a Value-Added Tax.

Recently we've been giving you lots of information on that most popular of topics- the income tax! We here at DQYDJ see no need to tone down our articles on taxes at this point... something about this date (maybe it has something to do with the April 15 tax deadline?) makes tax articles popular. Anyway, thanks to the Tax Foundation, we have an interesting measurement of tax - the number of days you have to work to be free and clear of the burden of tax, otherwise known as Tax Freedom Day!

From the offbeat category comes this awesome data set found through the National Journal. Scarborough USA, a joint undertaking of market research companies Nielsen and Arbitron surveyed 218,000 people between August 2008 and September 2009 to try to figure out the political leanings of sports viewers. Surveyors tried to figure out both how viewers self-identified politically, and also their likelihood to vote. This data has been published, and here is is (on ManyEyes!) for you to play with!