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The Yield Curve Inverted on 12/03/18 – What Does It Mean?

On December 3, 2018 the US 3 Year Treasury yielded 2.84% annually. Wildly, the 5 Year Treasury yielded 2.83% - that is, the yield incentivized investors to take on 3 year securities instead of 5 years! This rare condition - where a Treasury note of shorter duration pays more interest than a longer note - […]

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Looking at the Job Market by Proxy in 09/18: Quits to Separations

While we don't write on it every month, JOLTS, or the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the BLS, is one of our favorite surveys. Although it has only existed since 2000, it attempts to characterize how and why (and when!) jobs turnover, and lets us look at how people and firms are behaving […]

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Checking in on Risk Premiums: Mid-May 2018

A risk premium is the excess return an investor captures or anticipates between a risky asset and a comparable safer asset. A risk premium can either be a forward estimate (ex ante – what we expect) or a calculated result (ex post – what we observed). In investing - and really, in participating in an […]

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Using Yield Curve Inversion as a Recession Indicator

We've looked at extending our measure of the United States yield curve back in time. To recap, a yield curve inversion occurs when short-term debt yields higher than long-term debt. That is, the market judges the near-term riskier than long-term. Since the late 1960s, this phenomenon has been a reliable indicator of a looming recession. […]

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Mortgages vs. the Expected Inflation Rate, April '18

Inflation expectations through Treasury breakevens – a concept we just visited – are a decent take on the market's opinion on the 'cost of holding money'. Mortgages are, of course, the standard means by which people acquire houses - usually borrowing money for 30 years to pay off the cost of a home (see some […]

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Inflation Expectations as of 4/12/2018

For a time, we were closely watching inflation expectations – or a close approximation known as treasury breakevens, anyway. By subtracting the yield on inflation adjusted treasuries such as TIPS from the yield on treasuries you take the temperature on the market's rough expectations of inflation (CPI). Although not the most 'exact' method, it's an […]

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My 2017 Savings Rate

At DQYDJ, tax season has us recently rolling out our annual savings rate. The personal finance blogosphere constantly emphasizes its importance and demonstrates its impact on your ability to increase your net worth. It also helps show what you might reasonably expect to need to spend if you choose to retire. What's My Savings Rate? […]

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What Was Your Savings Rate in 2017?

We here at DQYDJ have recently been sharing some of our insights into our own personal finances – you can thank tax season for that. Recently, I covered our current asset allocation and Cameron his. Today, taxes in hand, I tallied up my savings rate for last year. In 2017, our net saving rate (dollar […]

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My 2018 Asset Allocation

In honor of tax season, we at DQYDJ annually post savings rate and asset allocation summaries. Unfortunately, I find mine particularly boring. I am young enough and have enough time left in the market that it has pretty much become throw it all in stocks and wait. Because of that (and that I've been at […]

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What is Your Asset Allocation in 2018?

Every year – usually, conveniently, around tax time – we like to evaluate the total picture of our personal finances. DQYDJ is (at least occasionally) a personal finance web site, so that usually means an asset allocation post and a savings rate post. Today, I'll share our broad asset allocation snapshot. If it helps with […]

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