A couple months ago, we pointed out that the returns in China's Shanghai Composite from (and before) its nominal closing peak on 6/12/2015 looked eerily similar to the US's own investing experience with the NASDAQ preceding and immediately following its 3/10/2000 peak.
As the market has continued to drop, we decided to come back to the series for another round.
The Shanghai Composite vs. the NASDAQ
This chart shows the 500 days before the respective peaks, all the way through 60 days after.
'Days' are trading days, as in days in the market - holidays and weekends are not included in the data (and prices are closing prices). The Shanghai Composite data ends on the market close of 9/10/2015, when the Shanghai Composite closed at 3197.893. All closing prices are normalized to the peak close listed in the introduction, but prices are not adjusted for inflation or reinvested dividends.
So, at this point of time, 60 days after the respective peaks, the NASDAQ was down 25.6% from the March 10, 2000 close. The Shanghai Composite is down even more - 38.10% from its June 12, 2015 closing peak.
Our last article on the subject contains a picture of the NASDAQ's subsequent performance - but the NASDAQ did trade down over 60% within the year (252 trading days from the peak, on 3/12/2001, it traded down 61.9%).
Does It Mean Anything?
Well, perhaps not... "Eerie Similarities" is what we've been following with this series - but please let us know if you see anything interesting in the data!
