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The DQYDJ Weekender, 1/02/2021

Happy New Year!  🎉 And it feels particularly sweet to say that – though the beginning of 2021 looks a lot like the end of 2020. It's great to close the books on a devastating year, though; the world saw something like 84 million confirmed COVID cases and 1.8 million deaths. Among them – my grandmother. […]

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My Asset Allocation in June 2020

DQYDJ is – at times – a personal finance web site. One of the ways I keep it personal is by sharing my asset allocation annually. While you may not particularly care for my family's money management and personal financial moves, with the topics DQYDJ covers, I need to be transparent. By sharing our broad portfolio allocation, you can […]

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A Quick Market Correction, An Inverted Yield Curve, and a Corona

Last week was an interesting week. Fears of the novel coronavirus's spread started coming to a head, and the US stock markets crumbled. As recently as Wednesday, February 19, 2020, the S&P 500 touched an all-time high of 3,393.52. On Friday, February 28, it closed at 2,954.22, down 12.9%. What Does the S&P 500's Fall Mean? In the […]

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And – Just Like That – He Was Gone: Camo, our Dog

This post isn't about finance. If you can't handle the death of a pet, skip this one – we'll see you next post. Our dog died this weekend.  It was recurrent mast cell cancer in the end – but even if it wasn't, a number of his organs were on the precipice of failure. Camo […]

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Key Parts of the Yield Curve Re-Inverted on January 21, 2020

Remember the yield curve inversion? Yeah me too. For most of 2019 until October (when the Federal Reserve cut overnight lending rates for the third time that year) a significant part of the yield curve was inverted. On January 21, 2020, Treasury debt in the 3 year range started yielding less than terms under a […]

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Inflation Expectations in Mid-January 2020

Back in June 2019 we last checked on inflation expectations. Well, at least the kind measured by Treasury Breakevens. In the ensuing months we watched the yield curve un-invert. We witnessed the President's impeachment, an initial trade deal with China, and all manner of international events. And inflation expectations have risen – back up to […]

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Why Did the Fed Lower Interest Rates?

Back on Wednesday, July 31st, 2019, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate for the first time in eleven years. In future articles, I will discuss why I find this move and its timing peculiar. For now though, I wanted to lay out some short-term implications and how I think this impacts the economy. […]

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The 10 year-2 year Yield Curve Inverted 8/14/2019: What Does the Yield Curve Tell Us?

On 8/14/2019, briefly, 2 year Treasuries paid slightly better than 10 year Treasuries: 1.628% vs. 1.619%. By day's end this brief inversion corrected, and the two yields settled at 1.58% and 1.59% respectively. Still, you can't un-ring that bell: regardless of the closing price, we witnessed the first 10 year - 2 year inversion since […]

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Inflation and Dividend Adjusted S&P 500 On July 19, 2019

I won't bury the lede: the all time closing high on the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation and reinvested dividends, was on July 15, 2019. Friday's close (July 19, 2019) was a mere 1.23% below that peak . The S&P 500 Through July 2019 After Christmas Eve 2018 we talked about how the S&P 500 […]

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Inflation Expectations in June, 2019

Don't look now - inflation expectations are getting interesting again. Last year, inflation expectations as measured by the difference between inflation adjusted securities – TIPS – and nominal treasuries floated around 2-2.15% for 5-30 years. As of today, those time-frames predict 1.61% annually over the next 5 years and only up to 1.81% over the […]

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