We’re a week closer to a potential upset in the special Massachusetts senate race (scheduled for voting tomorrow). The last 4 polling companies that have weighed in (according to Real Clear Politics data) come in at +10, +5, +10 and +3 Brown, and were all conducted since 1/14. These polls generally estimate a larger than normal turnout for a special election; only two candidates are on the ballot and there aren’t any initiatives to vote on. They also suggest slightly positive ratings for President Obama among likely voters, although potentially under 50 percent.
Winter votes in New England also have a wildcard to deal with that California doesn’t: the potential for snow. Here’s what the weather in Boston looks like now, midday Monday (around noon in Boston):
And, yes, there is snow forecast for tomorrow. If the snow is more than a flurry, voter turnout will likely decrease (potentially good for Martha Coakley, as the Democratic base is larger than the Republican base). However, intial reports from Massachusetts see a surge in absentee ballots with a slight Scott Brown tilt.
The takeaway message? This one is still a tossup. If you’re in Massachusetts, get out and vote, because this one is still too close to call. Still, the odds for a Republican upset have increased, and it will be a tough spin if a Democratic candidate doesn’t keep Ted Kennedy’s former seat. I’ll have more analysis after the polls close tomorrow.