We've had our first major upset of the Republican primary!
On Tuesday, there were 3 major events in the Republican primary calendar. Both Minnesota and Colorado held caucuses while Missouri held a non-binding primary. Going into the night, Santorum was expected to win Missouri (he had been campaigning there, while other candidates had been avoiding it) and likely to win Minnesota as well. Colorado, having similar demographics to Nevada (although having a notably smaller Mormon population) was expected to grant Romney a victory. In fact, prior to voting in Colorado, betting site Intrade had Romney at 97% to win the state. To riff off a common sports phrase? That's why they count the votes!
The New Normal
At this point in the race, for all the talk about Mitt Romney's "inevitability", the truth is he's actually won less states than Rick Santorum. Rick Santorum has won Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri, and Iowa while Mr. Romney has won Nevada, Florida and New Hampshire. The last contest, South Carolina, went to Newt Gingrich. Ron Paul has not yet won a primary or caucus, but he did register his first second place finish in Minnesota yesterday.
Yesterday puts a huge dent in Mr. Romney's inevitability argument. While still the expected Republican candidate in the general election against President Barack Obama, Intrade is now showing his chances hovering around 80%, while Mr. Santorum has 13%, Mr. Gingrich 3% and Ron Paul 3%.
And a look at how all the votes cast on February 7th add up (adding the three states together):
And here is a similar graph which includes all votes cast up to February 8th (the next vote of note is the caucus straw poll in Maine on the 11th).
Challenging Inevitability
Mitt Romney: Inevitable? No, but he'll likely still be the Republican nominee. Even though he has been out-hustled in the organizationally heavy caucus states (he won Nevada but lost 3 other caucuses to Rick Santorum), he still has the overall organizational muscle, cash, and support to go the distance. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the other candidates drop out after Super Tuesday - and that's when the "Non-Romney" vote theory can be tested.
For all the interest and drama in the Republican primary, Mitt Romney is still the likely nominee. However, remember Mitt Romney lost to the guy who lost to the guy in the White House - Barack Obama. The betting market, which had once been pricing Barack Obama at around 50% to win, is now up to almost 61%. Of course, the market implies a 67% chance of Republican House of Representatives Control and a 75.1% chance of Senate Republican control.
The most likely result? President Obama will get a second term and Republicans will control Congress. The last time American government was divided in that manner (under Bill Clinton, with Newt Gingrich as Speaker of the House), the budget was balanced and the deficit was reduced. We could do worse! Your thoughts?
