This page contains a dividend discount model calculator with an added bonus: built-in financials for over 2,000 publicly listed American stocks. For included stocks that pay dividends, you can populate dividend growth rates and dividend payouts per share without leaving DQYDJ. (Why would you want to, anyway?)
Of course, like other calculators in this series (try our stock reinvestment calculator or discounted cash flow calculator) you can use this without automatically populating ticker information. Enter in a stock price, current dividend per share and a growth rate, optionally change advanced options, and hit ‘Calculate’.
Discounted Cash Flow Calculator with Automatic Fundamentals
Note: Valuations produced by this calculator are for informational use only and should not be taken as advice to trade or hold any individual securities. Do your own due diligence on inputs and valuations.
Using the Automatic Dividend Discount Model Calculator
The dividend discount model valuation calculator allows customization with a few advanced options – but is pretty basic. It uses Dividends per Share to run valuations, but allows you to change options around perpetual modelling.
Stock DDM Base Parameters
- Current Stock Price – The current stock trading price. This may be up to a week out of date if you auto-populate (see methodology on our Stock DRIP Calculator).
- Discount Rate (%) – Sometimes called the guaranteed return – “what you could earn annually elsewhere”.
- Annual Dividends Per Share ($) – The annual dividends per share of stock.
- Dividend Growth (%) – The annual percentage you expect the dividend to grow over the next X years, where X can be changed (see below). Be careful with this number when auto-populating! Companies initiating dividends recently might show very high annual growth – beware before projecting forward.
Advanced Options (Optional)
- Years of Above Growth – Number of years to project the above growth rate forward before switching to perpetual growth. By default, we use five years.
- Perpetual Dividend Growth (%) – The perpetual growth in in dividends per share once the X years (above) run out – for safety, we assume dividends will be flat by default. Feel free to tweak that.
- Ticker Symbol – You can find more information with Sharadar – there are a bit more than 2,000 tickers with information in the tool. Note that fundamentals come from the last annual report filed by a company. You should tweak the numbers for recent changes.
Dividend Discount Model Valuation Output
- Calculated Dividend Discount Model (DDM) Value – Estimated fair value per share using the dividend input assumptions.
- Over / Under Value Percentage – Versus the current stock price field, this rates how overvalued or undervalued the stock is in this model.
How to Use a Dividend Discount Model Analysis
While not as common as a Discounted Cash Flow model, the Dividend Discount Model is also a bottom-up valuation model which values stock based on some sort of cash flow. While DCF uses earnings (or free cash flow), the Dividend Discount Model uses the future payout of dividends to value a security.
Of course, (as with many forms of valuation) this model has problems with high growth companies. Smaller cap firms tend not to pay as many dividends as mid-to-larger cap corporations. The model falls flat in this scenario – it will report a non-dividend paying stock as ‘worthless’.
The ideal valuation to model with DDM is a mature company with a well-established dividend growing at a constant rate. In that situation, dividends tend to be very stable with constant and relatively predictable dividend increases.
As usual, there are still a few levers you need to carefully consider:
Discount rate is the return you could achieve executing some default investment strategy. To set a good number, try our S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator which shows trailing returns on the S&P 500 Index.
Dividend growth is the annual rate you predict the company will increase dividends going forward. When the calculator estimates this, it uses only the first (full) year it finds in the last 5 and the last. Some auto-populated numbers are therefore… unbelievable, especially when dividends initiate after mid-way through the year. Be sure to check this number in your analysis.
DDM: An Overlooked Yet Useful Stock Valuation Method
While it doesn’t match discounted cash flow analysis in popularity, the dividend discount model is a great model to have in your toolbelt. Working off the theory that stock value is based on the sum of future cash flows, there is no cash flow more real than dividends.
Recognize the limitations… but also recognize the strengths. When you see a good place to apply the dividend discount model, this page will be waiting for you. See you again, soon!