In a word? Not so hotly.
Of course, prices have rebounded quite a bit since the Great Recession, but a few indicators clearly show that things still have quite a way to go – if we assume they are snapping back to where they were even in the early 2000s.
Census Homeownership Data
This data all comes from Tuesday’s Census Bureau release of the most recent 3rd Quarter of 2014 data on homeownership… and they paint a pretty interesting picture, at least when it comes to claims of a solid recovery. If recovery needs a real estate echo-boom, these charts show that we have a lot left to run.
First up, the homeownership rate… which maxed out at 69.2% in the second and fourth quarter of 2004. Since the recession it has fallen – and it currently sits at 64.4%. Numbers like that were last seen in the early 90s:
A lot of the issue (and we were told, constantly!) of the real estate market pre-recession was the rapid increase in inventory. In just 8 years, the housing stock increased by over 10%. Since then? We’ve leveled out a bit.
Over time, if humans continue to live longer, households continue to stay smaller, and/or our population increases, there is a necessity for new inventory – both to cover new household formation and to replace failing home inventory (it happens!). Of course, that process will probably be wacky for a while, as you can see with this graph of housing starts (new building) and total housing inventory:
So, what do you think? Do we need a real estate echo boom for a durable recovery? What’s the proper homeownership rate? Anything else you’d like to see?