Did "all the income gains go to the top"? Whichever camp you fall into, below is a tool to test the claim: compare real individual income growth across percentiles for the United States for any time period from 1962-2026. See who benefited from income growth (and when) using the Census Bureau's annual ASEC.
Income growth by percentile calculator
Using the income growth comparison tool
The tool defaults to comparing two 20-year periods. Pick any start and end years for each period, then hit Compare Periods to see growth at every percentile.
Basic comparison
- Period 1 and Period 2: Select start and end years for two time periods to compare side-by-side
- Chart: See annualized real income growth for each percentile in both periods
- Summary: Highlights median growth and top percentile growth for quick comparison
Options and presets
Click Options to access additional features:
- Presets: Quick access to notable comparisons – last 20 vs prior 20 years, a Leonhardt-esque comparison (1962–1980 vs 1980–2014, the closest we can get with CPS ASEC data), first vs second half of the dataset, and pre/post-2000
- Single period mode: Analyze just one time period instead of comparing two
- Show all percentiles: Display every percentile (1-99) instead of the default selection. (Note that aggressive topcoding before 1996 means we won't show the top few percentiles for older dates.)
Reading the results
The chart shows annualized real growth. That's the compound annual rate of income growth, adjusted for inflation. A flat line would mean all income levels grew at the same rate while a line sloping up to the right means higher earners gained more.
Click Detailed Table to see both total and annualized growth for key percentiles.
The debate behind the tool
In 2017, David Leonhardt's New York Times piece "Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart" went viral. It compared two 34-year periods – 1980-2014 vs 1946-1980 – and showed a dramatic shift: in the earlier period, income gains were broadly shared; in the later period, nearly all the growth went to the top income percentiles.
The chart sparked a fierce debate. Economists like Auten and Splinter challenged the underlying data, arguing you find a much smaller increase in top shares once taxes/transfers and other adjustments are included. Leonhardt's chart was based on work by Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman (later, PSZ). PSZ – and supporters – have since called such critiques "inequality denial."
Critics have also questioned the 1980 starting point – for example, Phil Magness asked "why 1980?", calling the split "arbitrary or political" since it lands right before the 1981 Reagan tax cut. Scott Winship (then at Brookings, now AEI) noted in 2013 that Piketty and Saez's tax-unit income coverage shifted over time: about 109% of CPS in 1966 but 93% by 1979, even though the CPS undercounts top income percentiles. And compared with CBO income estimates (which include transfers, employer benefits, and capital gains), their totals fell from 89% in 1979 to around 77% by 2009.
(And the debate goes on, feel free to read more and pick a side: one, two, three. Since our data is from the CPS ASEC, we also skip capital gains and tax credits like the EITC – more on that in a second.)
Why our chart looks different
If you run the Leonhardt-esque comparison (1980-2014), you'll notice DQYDJ's chart doesn't show the same smooth upward slope. That's because I use different underlying data:
- Leonhardt used different tax data (Piketty-Saez-Zucman distributional national accounts). We use CPS ASEC survey data – the standard for income statistics, but note we are measuring different things.
- Income the CPS doesn't count is the big difference: PSZ assigns national income to people – including profits companies keep, employer-paid benefits, and imputed returns on pensions and housing. The CPS only counts money people receive: wages, business income, dividends, interest, and many transfers. Most of that extra income lands in top percentiles, where Leonhardt's hockey stick comes from.
- Topcoding: We're capped at the 95th percentile for pre-1996 data due to some aggressive topcoding in our dataset.
- Transfer income: CPS measures Social Security, disability, and other transfers that grew significantly for lower percentiles. PSZ's post-tax series deducts all taxes and adds back all transfers, while ours is pre-tax money income – and for workers attached to the labor force, not all adults.
- Income isn't net worth: some authors will try to muddy the differences between the two – I track net worth by year as well, and the Federal Reserve tracks the proportion of household wealth controlled by the top 1%. The proportion of household wealth controlled by the top 1% has undeniably grown quite a bit since the 1990s.
Neither source is wrong, but, obviously, we are measuring slightly different things. The CPS data we're using counts money income people actually receive while PSZ's national accounts assign every dollar of national income – including profits that don't leave a company – to someone.
There's also a conceptual issue with capital gains, which some tax-based measures (like the CBO's) do include: they're lumpy.
Sell a rental property you've owned for 15 years and you might land in the "top 1%" income for that single year – then drop back to your normal percentile. You can't sell it again the next year, at least legally! Tax data that counts realized gains treats that as inequality while with the smoother income measure from the ASEC... you wouldn't. And which is "right" depends on what question you're asking.
Finally, remember this data isn't longitudinal – we're not tracking the same people in the same percentile over time. The "50th percentile person" in 1980 isn't the same individual as the "50th percentile person" in 2014. People move up and down the income distribution throughout their lives.
What the data shows
I'm not going to tell you what to see (I built a tool, instead!).
Run some comparisons and draw your own conclusions. The story you find may differ from the conventional narrative, especially since our data excludes the retained profits, benefits, and imputed income which drove much of Leonhardt's hockey stick graph.
What I will say: the patterns shift dramatically depending on which years you pick. That's sort of the point; try a few presets, try your own combinations, and see how sensitive the conclusions are to period selection.
Methodology and data notes
The calculator uses individual income data from the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement (CPS ASEC), accessed via IPUMS CPS.
- Income measure: Total personal income before taxes, including wages, self-employment, investments, and transfers. I use the INCTOT variable here, just like with many of my other income posts. Inflation adjustments use chained CPI-U from 2000+, R-CPI-U-RS from 1978 to 1999, and the CPI-U-X1 before that (extended back to 1962 with the CPI-U)... the preferred Census Bureau adjustment methodology.
- Topcoding: Pre-1996 data is capped at the 95th percentile due to aggressive topcoding practices. Post-1996 data extends to the 99th percentile. Top percentiles have a break in 2011, when the Census Bureau switched to rank proximity swapping. Treat top-percentile comparisons across 2011 with caution.
- Population: Individuals age 16+ attached to the labor force (same as our income percentile calculator in recent years – see the individual income by year methodology for how the screen changed over time)
- Years: Years are survey years – incomes are earned in the calendar year before the survey, so 2026 numbers are income earned in 2025. Other sources label it by the year the income was earned.
- 2014 redesign: Census revised its income questions in the 2014 survey to pick up more retirement income sources.
Again, note the data is not longitudinal: CPS is cross-sectional – we're comparing "the 50th percentile person in 1980" to "the 50th percentile person in 2014," not tracking the same people over time.
Related income tools
Explore more income statistics and calculators:
- Individual Income by Year – Average, median, and percentiles for the whole dataset
- Income Percentile Calculator – See where you rank in the current year
- Individual Income Percentiles – Full breakdown of the most recent year's income distribution
- Household Income by Year – Household income percentiles by year
- Household Income Growth by Percentile - This analysis, household style
- Income by Age – See how income varies across age groups
The "gains went to the top" narrative has become conventional wisdom, but the data is more nuanced than the soundbite. Play with the periods, draw your own conclusions, join the debate, and have fun spinning the dials!
