On this page is a Dow Jones Drawdown History Calculator. It shows how far the Dow has fallen from its prior peak, how long each decline took, how long the recovery took, and how any current drawdown stacks up against Dow history back to 1896.

The Dow Jones Drawdown History Calculator

Using the Dow Jones Drawdown Calculator

The default view shows total-return drawdowns (dividends reinvested, nominal). Everything updates in real time as you toggle a setting.

• Reinvest Dividends – default is on. Off gives you the price-only view that matches other published lists.
• Adjust for Inflation – switches the drawdown calculation into real (CPI-adjusted) terms.
• Underwater chart – sits at zero whenever the Dow is at a new high, and runs negative the rest of the time. The brush at the bottom defaults to the last 30 years; drag it back to 1896 or in on a particular crisis.
• Highlights cards – eight summary stats covering current and historical drawdowns: today's depth, the deepest ever, the longest decline (peak to trough), the longest recovery, the longest total time underwater, the count of bear markets (≥20%), the count of corrections (10–20%), and the most recent 10%+ drawdown.

Top 10 worst Dow Jones drawdowns

Below is the static reference table of the ten worst Dow drawdowns on record – total-return based, peak month through trough month through new-high recovery month. Click to expand.

Famous Dow Jones drawdowns in context

• 1929–1932 (Great Depression) – the deepest drawdown in the dataset (by a wide margin). Even with dividends reinvested, the Dow fell about 85% from September 1929 to July 1932. Recovery to a new total-return high didn't happen until September 1945 – 16 years underwater. On a price-only basis (no dividend reinvestment), the recovery took until November 1954.
• 1973–1974 (Stagflation bear) – ~37% total-return drawdown from January 1973 to December 1974. Recovery to a new TR high came in January 1976 – a fast bounce on the TR side, helped by the era's high dividend yields. In real terms (toggle Adjust for Inflation), it was much worse: inflation was eating returns even as the nominal index recovered.
• 2000–2003 (Dot-com bust) – the Dow's dot-com drawdown was much shallower than the broader market's. Peak January 2000, trough February 2003, about a 26% total-return drawdown – versus the S&P 500's ~42% and the NASDAQ Composite's much deeper hit. The Dow was less tech-heavy at the turn of the century, and it shows.
• 2007–2009 (Global Financial Crisis) – peak October 2007, trough March 2009, recovery to a new TR high in May 2011. About a 46% total-return drawdown, the second-deepest in the dataset after the Great Depression.
• 1987 Black Monday – the daily-close drawdown that October – famously ~-22% in a single session. The monthly-average data this tool uses smooths over that single day, so the episode shows up as a ~27% drawdown over four months rather than the headline one-day move.
• COVID 2020 – similar story: the daily-close peak-to-trough was about −37%, but peak (Feb), trough (Mar), and new high (Nov) all happened within nine months. This monthly-average methodology doesn't catch the depth – but it happened, so I'll flag it here.

Methodology and sources

Daily Dow Jones Industrial Average prices come from the Federal Reserve's DJIA series on FRED, with each monthly value being the average of that month's daily closes. Per-share monthly dividends are derived from the gap between the Dow price index and the S&P DJI total-return DJIA index, allocated across the months of each quarter.

For detail on how the underlying historical Dow level and dividend series are populated and estimated back to 1896, see DQYDJ's Dow Jones Return Calculator.

What is a drawdown?

A drawdown is the running gap between an investment's current value and its highest value to date. Whenever the index hits a new all-time high, the drawdown is zero. Whenever it's sitting below the prior peak, the drawdown is negative – the percentage distance from that peak.

For any month t:

\text{drawdown}_t = \frac{V_t - \max(V_0, \ldots, V_t)}{\max(V_0, \ldots, V_t)}

That always produces a number between 0 (at a new high) and −1 (a 100% loss).

A reminder on the methodology: short, fast crashes – the one-day Black Monday move in 1987, or the COVID waterfall in March 2020 – get smoothed away by monthly averaging, and look milder in this tool than they did on a daily-close chart.

Related calculators

On this page is an S&P 500 Annual Return Rankings tool. It shows calendar year returns¹ back to 1872, ranked from best to worst, with toggles for dividend reinvestment and inflation adjustment.

¹ - See methodology for how annual returns work.

The S&P 500 Annual Return Rankings Calculator

Using the S&P 500 Annual Return Rankings Calculator

The default view shows nominal total returns (dividends reinvested). Everything updates in real time as you toggle a setting.

• Reinvest Dividends – on by default. Toggle off for price-only annual returns.
• Adjust for Inflation – when on, every annual return is restated in real (CPI-adjusted) terms.
• Highlights cards – eight headline stats: best year and worst year on record, average and median annual return, win rate (% of years with positive returns), longest positive streak, longest negative streak, and the most recent year.
• Chart and table – the bar chart colors positive years green and negative years red; you can drag the brush at the bottom to zoom into any window. The table beneath is sortable by year or by any return column.

Historical S&P 500 annual returns table

Below is the static reference table of every S&P 500 calendar-year return on record, going back to 1872. Both price return and total return (dividends reinvested) versions are shown. Click to expand.

Three out of four...

Across 154 years of S&P 500 annual data, roughly 73% of calendar years finish positive on a total-return basis.

The down years tended to cluster. 1929–1932 (Great Depression) is the only four-year-in-a-row negative TR streak on record. 1937 stands alone. 1973–1974 was a back-to-back. 2000–2002 was a three-peat. 2008 was alone at −39%. The longest positive streak is 10 years – 1947 through 1956.

The worst and best years also cluster tightly. The single worst calendar year, 1931 (−42%), is just two years before the single best, 1933 (+54%). 1937 (−32%) was followed by 1938 (+22%). 1974 (−26%) by 1975 (+38%). 2008 (−39%) by 2009 (+30%).

Methodology and sources

S&P 500 monthly prices, dividends, and CPI come from Robert Shiller's compiled dataset, which extends back to 1871 by splicing the modern S&P 500 onto its pre-1957 predecessor indexes. Each monthly price is the average of that month's daily closes. For the underlying construction detail, see DQYDJ's S&P 500 Return Calculator.

A note on which "annual return" you're looking at: the returns here are December monthly-average over December monthly-average – the standard Shiller-style convention. They will differ slightly from the Jan-open-to-Dec-close numbers most publishers quote, especially in volatile years where the Dec average isn't close to the the Dec-31 close (or the equivalent last trading day of the year). For year-specific closer-to-publisher-style numbers, see our year-specific S&P 500 return posts.

• Annual price return for year Y = (December Y monthly-average price) ÷ (December Y−1 monthly-average price) − 1.
• Total return reinvests each month's dividend into more index shares at that month's price (the shares-purchased method), then takes the Dec-over-Dec ratio of shares × price.
• Real (inflation-adjusted) returns divide by the CPI ratio between the two December months.

Related calculators

On this page is an S&P 500 Drawdown History Calculator. It shows how far the S&P 500 has fallen from its prior peak, how long each decline took, how long the recovery took, and how any current drawdown stacks up against history back to 1871.

The S&P 500 Drawdown History Calculator

Using the S&P 500 Drawdown Calculator

The default view shows total-return drawdowns (dividends reinvested, nominal). Everything updates in real time as you toggle a setting.

• Reinvest Dividends – on by default. Toggle off for the price-only drawdowns that closely match most published "biggest crashes ever" lists. But note, dividends meaningfully cushion drawdown depth and shorten time-to-new-high, so the price-only and total-return numbers can differ by a lot for the long episodes.
• Adjust for Inflation – when on, drawdowns are computed in real (CPI-adjusted) terms.
• Underwater chart – always zero or negative. It shows how far the index sits below its prior all-time high at every month. New highs reset the line to zero; bear markets pull it deep. The brush chart at the bottom defaults to the last 30 years; drag the handles to zoom out to 1871 or zoom in on a single crisis.
• Highlights cards – eight headline stats: current drawdown depth and months underwater, deepest drawdown ever (and when), longest decline (peak → trough), longest recovery (trough → new high), longest total underwater stretch, bear-market count (≥20% drawdown), correction count (10–20% drawdowns), and the most recent 10%-plus drawdown.

Top 10 worst S&P 500 drawdowns

Below is the static reference table of the ten worst S&P 500 drawdowns on record – total-return based, peak month through trough month through new-high recovery month. Click to expand the chart.

Famous S&P 500 drawdowns in context

• 1929–1932 (Great Depression) – the deepest drawdown in the dataset, by a wide margin. Even with dividends reinvested, the S&P 500 fell about 82% from September 1929 to June 1932. Recovery to a new total-return high didn't happen until January 1945 – over 15 years underwater. On a price-only basis (no dividends), the recovery took until September 1954.
• 1973–1974 (Stagflation bear) – ~39% total-return drawdown from January 1973 to December 1974. Recovery to a new TR high came in mid-1976 – a fast bounce, helped by the era's high dividend yields. In real terms (toggle Adjust for Inflation), it was much worse: inflation was eating returns even as the nominal index recovered.
• 2000–2003 (Dot-com bust) – peak August 2000, trough February 2003. About a 42% total-return drawdown, with recovery to a new high in October 2006 – just over six years total underwater.
• 2007–2009 (Global Financial Crisis) – peak October 2007, trough March 2009, recovery to a new TR high in August 2012. A 49% total-return drawdown, the second-deepest on record after the Great Depression.
• COVID 2020 – the daily-close drawdown reached about −34%, but on a monthly-average basis (what this tool uses) the shock barely registers in the top 10. The peak (Feb), trough (Mar), and new high (Aug) all happened within six months – too fast for monthly averages to capture the depth.

Methodology and sources

S&P 500 monthly prices and dividends come from Robert Shiller's compiled dataset, which extends back to 1871 by splicing the modern S&P 500 onto its pre-1957 predecessor indexes. Each monthly price is the average of that month's daily closes. The total-return series is built by reinvesting each month's dividend into more index shares at that month's price (the shares-purchased method). The underwater series at each month is the gap between the current level and the running maximum so far.

For detail on the construction of the underlying series, see DQYDJ's S&P 500 Return Calculator.

What is a drawdown?

A drawdown is how far an investment has fallen from its prior all-time high. At any moment, the drawdown is the percentage gap between the current value and the highest value the investment has ever reached. When the investment makes a new all-time high, the drawdown resets to zero. When the price drops below the prior peak, the drawdown is negative.

Formally, for any month t:

\text{drawdown}_t = \frac{V_t - \max(V_0, \ldots, V_t)}{\max(V_0, \ldots, V_t)}

That always produces a number between 0 (at a new high) and −1 (a 100% loss).

One caveat on my data: because we work from monthly-average prices, short sharp drawdowns like COVID 2020 and Black Monday 1987 understate the peak-to-trough depth that a daily-close chart would show – and the panic an investor might have felt in the moment.

Related calculators

The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 12.67% in 2025. Using a better calculation including dividend reinvestment, the Dow Jones returned 14.92%.

2025 Dow Jones Industrial Average return: Steady as she goes

The above calculation is based on a theoretical trade at open on January 2nd, 2025 and a sale at close on December 31, 2025. That is, of course, impossible to time... but I think you get the idea!

If you prefer the December 31, 2024 close price, you can find it in the table, below.

Dow Jones 2025 Index Returns

Dow Jones 2025 Total Return Index Returns

*S&P Dow Jones Indices doesn't report a different price between the 2024 close and 2025 open.

The Dow Jones tends to include mature companies which pay more of their earnings out in dividends. It's an active index, and the index committee constantly swaps out firms. The ~2.3% dividend boost (from 12.67% to 14.92%) reflects the Dow's dividend-heavier composition compared to the tech-heavy NASDAQ.

Investing in the Dow Jones Price-Weighted Stock Index

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is price-weighted. Price-weighted indices take the trading price of the underlying company shares times an "individual stock factor". Most stock indices nowadays are market capitalization weighted, (see the 2025 S&P 500 Return).

Price weighting is not as good as market capitalization weighting. But, it does track large cap companies well if indices are constructed well, with components that represent the broader market.

Source on the 2025 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return Calculations

Dow Jones Indices is owned by S&P Dow Jones Indices. They run both the Dow Jones Total Return and Price Indices.

Historically, here on DQYDJ we have gone pretty far with our content – both in investing, and with some Dow Jones specific posts and tools:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend Reinvestment Calculator
  Estimate DJIA performance since 1896
• Dow Jones Industrial Average Historical Return Calculator
  Summary statistics on the DJIA

See DJIA returns in other years:

The S&P 500 Price index returned 15.96% in 2025. Using an estimate which includes the effects of dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 returned 17.44%.

The 2025 S&P 500 return: A solid follow-up

For the calculation I did above, I assumed you bought the open price of the S&P 500 on January 2, 2025, and sold the close price on December 31, 2025. Of course, you couldn't actually pull off those trades – but it's a reasonable estimate!

These charts give you a few other ways to estimate the annual return, including buying the close price in 2024, instead. Still impossible, but at this point I have to assume you get the idea...

S&P 500 Index Price Calculation

S&P 500 Total Return Price Calculation

The S&P 500 Total Return Index includes an estimate of returns with dividend reinvestment. These results are closer to what you would have experienced with reinvestment - again, ignoring fees, taxes, transaction costs, timing, slippage, etc.

Source on the 2025 S&P 500 Return Calculations

S&P Dow Jones Indices owns the S&P 500 Index and the corresponding Total Return index. They added the total return index in 1987. Before that, I have estimates (with a monthly resolution) you can use at my S&P 500 Periodic Reinvestment and Dividend Calculator. Alternatively, use an S&P 500 ETF or Mutual Fund in my ETF Return Calculator or Mutual Fund Return Calculator.

Here are some other calculators which highlight the S&P 500:

• S&P 500 Dividend Reinvestment Calculator
  Dividend reinvestment estimates on the S&P 500 from 1871
• S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator
  See the average, median, best, and worst returns on the S&P 500 over a time period.

The 2025 S&P 500 Return

You can also find the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Total Return index at Yahoo! or at Google Finance. After two consecutive years of 20%+ gains, 2025 came back to earth a bit... just kidding, it had nearly a 16% price return (and over 17% with dividends!) which is nothing to sneeze at.

Other years, we've got them!

The tech-heavy NASDAQ index returned 19.78% in 2025. Using a better calculation which includes dividend reinvestment the NASDAQ returned 20.56%.

The 2025 NASDAQ Return: Tech keeps trucking

These returns assumed you bought the NASDAQ index at the open on January 2nd, 2025 and sold at close on December 31, 2025. Which is, as you might imagine, impossible - but illustrative!

These next charts list the assumptions if you'd like to assume something like buying the December 31, 2024 close instead.

2025 NASDAQ Index Price Return

NASDAQ Reinvested Dividend Return in 2025

The timing doesn't matter that much here – and, of course, it was impossible to trade those exact prices, regardless. As you can see, though, it was another good year for the NASDAQ – outpacing the S&P 500 as tech continued to lead!

Source on the 2025 NASDAQ Return Calculations

NASDAQ Indexes (appropriately!) owns the NASDAQ index. At their site, you'll find the index level and total return data. You can find NASDAQ total return data directly from NASDAQ. Alternatively, use a NASDAQ ETF or Mutual Fund in my ETF Return Calculator or Mutual Fund Return Calculator.

Here are some other calculators which highlight the NASDAQ:

• NASDAQ Dividend Reinvestment Calculator
  Dividend reinvestment estimates on the NASDAQ from 1971
• NASDAQ Historical Return Calculator
  See the average, median, best, and worst returns on the NASDAQ over a time period.

See NASDAQ returns in other years:

The S&P 500 Price index returned 23.95% in 2024. Using an estimate which includes dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 returned 25.66%.

The 2024 S&P 500 return: Another great year

For the calculation I did above, I assumed you bought the open price of the S&P 500 on January 2, 2024, and sold the close price on December 31, 2024. Of course, you couldn't actually pull off those trades – but it's a reasonable estimate.

These charts give you a few other ways to estimate the annual return, including buying the close price in 2023, instead. Still impossible, but you get the idea...

S&P 500 Index Price Calculation

S&P 500 Total Return Price Calculation

The S&P 500 Total Return Index includes an estimate of returns with dividend reinvestment. These results are closer to what you would have experienced with reinvestment - again, ignoring fees, taxes, transaction costs, timing, slippage, etc.

Source on the 2024 S&P 500 Return Calculations

S&P Dow Jones Indices owns the S&P 500 Index and Total Return index. They added the total return index in 1987. Before that, I have some estimates with a monthly resolution you can use at my S&P 500 Periodic Reinvestment and Dividend Calculator.

Here are some other calculators which highlight the S&P 500:

• S&P 500 Dividend Reinvestment Calculator
  Dividend reinvestment estimates on the S&P 500 from 1871
• S&P 500 Periodic Reinvestment and Dividend Calculator
  A tool to estimate fees and taxes and periodic scheduled additions to investments.
• S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator
  See the average, median, best, and worst returns on the S&P 500 over a time period.

The 2024 S&P 500 Return

You can find the S&P 500 and Total Return index at Yahoo!. Here's how the S&P 500 performed, with and without dividends reinvested (that is, the price return vs. the dividend-reinvested return) in 2024:

Other years:

• 2023 S&P 500 Return
• 2022 S&P 500 Return
• 2021 S&P 500 Return
• 2020 S&P 500 Return
• 2019 S&P 500 Return
• 2018 S&P 500 Return
• 2017 S&P 500 Return
• 2016 S&P 500 Return
• 2015 S&P 500 Return
• 2014 S&P 500 Return
• 2013 S&P 500 Return
• 2012 S&P 500 Return

The NASDAQ returned 29.83% in 2024. Using a better calculation which includes dividend reinvestment the NASDAQ returned 30.77%.

The 2024 NASDAQ Return: an awesome year

These returns assumed you bought the NASDAQ index at the open on January 2nd, 2024 and sold at close on December 31, 2024. These charts list the assumptions if you'd like to assume something like a December 29, 2023 close instead.

2024 NASDAQ Index Price Return

NASDAQ Reinvested Dividend Return in 2024

The timing doesn't matter that much here – and, of course, it was impossible to trade those exact prices, regardless. As you can see, though, it was a good year for the NASDAQ.

Source on the 2023 NASDAQ Return Calculations

NASDAQ Indexes (owns the NASDAQ. At their site, find the index level and total return data. You can find NASDAQ total return data here or on investing.com.

See NASDAQ returns in other years:

• 2023 NASDAQ Return
• 2022 NASDAQ Return
• 2021 NASDAQ Return
• 2020 NASDAQ Return
• 2019 NASDAQ Return
• 2018 NASDAQ Return
• 2017 NASDAQ Return
• 2016 NASDAQ Return
• 2015 NASDAQ Return
• 2014 NASDAQ Return

The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 13.25% in 2024. Using a better calculation including dividend reinvestment, the Dow Jones returned 14.99%.

2024 Dow Jones Industrial Average return: Another solid year

The above calculation is based on a theoretical trade at open on January 2nd, 2023 and a sale at close on December 31, 2024. That is, of course, impossible to time... but you get the idea. If you prefer the December 29, 2023 close price, you can find it in the table, below.

Dow Jones 2024 Index Returns

Dow Jones 2024 Total Return Index Returns

*S&P Dow Jones Indices doesn't report a different price between the 2023 close and 2024 open.

The Dow Jones tends to include mature companies which pay more of their earnings out in dividends. It's an active index, and the index committee constantly swaps out firms. In 2024, Amazon, Sherwin-Williams, and Nvidia were added to the index, while Walgreens Boots Alliance, Intel, and Dow Inc. left the index.

Investing in the Dow Jones Price-Weighted Stock Index

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is price-weighted. Price-weighted indices take the trading price of the underlying company shares times an "individual stock factor". Most stock indices nowadays are market capitalization weighted, (see the 2024 S&P 500 Return).

Price weighting is not as good as market capitalization weighting. But, it does track large cap companies well if indices are constructed well, with components that represent the broader market.

Source on the 2024 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return Calculations

Dow Jones Indices is owned by S&P Dow Jones Indices. They run both the Dow Jones Total Return and Price Indices.

Historically, here on DQYDJ we have gone pretty far with our content – both in investing, and with some Dow Jones specific posts and tools:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average Dividend Reinvestment Calculator
  Estimate DJIA performance since 1896
• Dow Jones Industrial Average Historical Return Calculator
  Summary statistics on the DJIA

See DJIA returns in other years:

• 2023 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return
• 2022 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return
• 2021 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return
• 2020 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return
• 2019 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return
• 2018 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return
• 2017 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return
• 2016 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return
• 2015 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return
• 2014 Dow Jones Industrial Average Return

On this page is a NASDAQ Historical Return Calculator. It shows the NASDAQ Composite's annualized rolling returns across common holding periods, plus any custom period you type in. You can toggle dividend reinvestment, adjust for inflation, and switch the chart between a returns-over-time view and a percentile distribution view.

The NASDAQ Historical Return Calculator

Using the NASDAQ Historical Return Calculator

The default view shows the NASDAQ's annualized total returns (dividends reinvested, nominal). Everything updates in real time as you change a setting.

Here's what each control does:

• Reinvest Dividends – on by default. The tool computes total return by reinvesting each month's dividend into more index shares at that month's price (see the NASDAQ Return Calculator for the point-to-point version of the same math). Toggle off for pure price-only returns.
  
  A NASDAQ wrinkle: the Composite's dividend yield is structurally lower than the broader market. That's historically an artifact of NASDAQ being a more tech-heavy index, and tech tends to reinvest rather than distribute. Dividends still matter over a five-decade hold, just less than they do for the S&P 500 or Dow.
• Adjust for Inflation – when on, the tool restates every price in today's dollars using the latest CPI as the base. Real (after-inflation) returns are a more accurate measure of your buying power.
• Custom holding period – type any number of years between 1 and 50. The summary table picks up a highlighted "Custom" row, and the chart re-renders to show that period.
• Returns Over Time / Return Distribution – I have two chart views:
  • Returns Over Time plots the rolling N-year annualized return month by month. You can drag the brush chart at the bottom to zoom into any window.
  • Return Distribution plots one line per canonical holding period showing the spread of all rolling returns recorded in the data set.
• Average / Median overlays – in the returns-over-time view, click these to overlay horizontal reference lines for the period's mean and median return (red and amber, respectively).
• Show columns – under the summary table, click any column pill to add or hide that statistic. Defaults to Worst, Median, Best, Average, and Most Recent. Add 25th, 75th, or 95th percentile, Standard Deviation, or Windows count as needed.
• Copy / CSV – export whatever chart or table is visible. In the returns-over-time view, you get the summary table with currently-shown columns. In the distribution view, you get the full percentile-by-period matrix.

Historical NASDAQ rolling returns table

Below is a static reference table of NASDAQ rolling returns across the canonical holding periods. Both price return and total return (that is, dividends reinvested) versions are shown. The numbers come from monthly-average NASDAQ Composite closes going back to February 1971.

Methodology and sources

NASDAQ Composite daily prices come from the Federal Reserve's NASDAQCOM series on FRED, with each monthly value being the average of that month's daily closes.

Because we use monthly averages, the numbers here will differ slightly from quoted Jan-open-to-Dec-close figures in volatile years. For those, and for additional detail on the dividend estimates, see DQYDJ's year-specific NASDAQ return posts and the NASDAQ Return Calculator.

• Dividend reinvestment uses the shares-purchased method. At each month, the dividend per share is multiplied by the current share count to get the dividend payment, which buys additional shares at that month's price.
• The total return level is then shares × price.
• Inflation adjustment scales every price by the ratio of latest CPI to that month's CPI.
• The annualized monthly volatility shown in the chart footer is the standard deviation of month-over-month returns multiplied by √12, the standard finance-textbook annualization.

Rolling returns

A rolling return is the annualized return over a fixed-length holding period, calculated for every possible starting point in the dataset.

Take a 5-year rolling return: instead of one number for "the NASDAQ's 5-year return," you get a number for every overlapping 5-year window in the data – the 5 years ending February 1976, then ending March 1976, and so on through to today. That's a bit over 600 monthly-stepped 5-year windows. Each one is annualized so the 5-year, the 10-year, and the 30-year all sit on the same scale.

One quirk worth flagging: at 55 years, the Composite is the youngest dataset of the three major US indices on DQYDJ. The S&P 500 (via Shiller's spliced series) runs back to 1871 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 1896. So the NASDAQ has ~300 rolling 30-year windows on file vs. the other two having well over a thousand each. Treat the 30-year line as suggestive, not statistically as deep as the DJIA or S&P 500.

The annualized return formula:

r_{\text{annualized}} = \left(\frac{V_{\text{end}}}{V_{\text{start}}}\right)^{12/N} - 1

Where V_start and V_end are the index levels (or the dividend-reinvested totals) at the start and end of the window, and N is the number of months in the window.

Volatility is the price of admission...

Flip the chart to Return Distribution and the NASDAQ tells a different story than other indices. The 1-year line is wild even by equity standards: best case +101% (the dot-com run ending March 2000), worst case −59% (the back half of the same crash, ending September 2001).

The 10-year window also tells a NASDAQ-specific story: all three major US indices have had negative 10-year rolling total returns at some point. The NASDAQ's worst 10-year ended in March 2010, the dot-com round-trip, and it was deeper: −6.28% annualized. A $10,000 investment turned into roughly $5,200 even with dividends reinvested. The other indices' worst-decade is ancient history; the NASDAQ's is within living memory.

And yet – pull the horizon out to 20 years and the NASDAQ's worst return floor is +3.3% (the window ending March 2020), actually a bit above the S&P 500's worst 20-year floor and the Dow's. Pull it to 30 years and the NASDAQ has the highest 30-year worst-case of the three (+9.2%), though that's flattered by the dataset starting in 1971 – and, you know, missing the Great Depression.

Either way: volatility was the entry fee. The premium got paid; you just had to be willing to sit through the part where it didn't!

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