The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned 23.76% in 2019. Using a calculation including dividend reinvestment, the Dow Jones returned 25.34% in 2019.
The numbers above match an index price purchase on open on January 2nd, 2019 and sold at close on December 31, 2019. This is the same as the "year to date" (YTD) return if measured after close on the last trading day of the year.
Alternatively, you can look for a one-year holding proxy. If you bought the closing price on December 31, 2018 the returns would be 22.34% and 25.34%, respectively* (see the note below).
| Price From | Price | Dec 31 Close | Gain/Loss |
| Jan 2 Open | 23058.61 | 28538.44 | 23.76% |
| Dec 31 Close | 23327.46 | 28538.44 | 22.34% |
| Price From | Price | Dec 31 Close | Gain/Loss |
| Jan 2 Open | 51,462.77* | 64505.48 | 25.34% |
| Dec 31 Close | 51,462.77* | 64505.48 | 25.34% |
*The Dow Jones Total Return Index reports the same closing price as the next day open.
The important message? Pick whichever date for an annual return: it doesn't really matter.
Dividends matter. You can see the effects even over a single year; ignoring the compounding effects over a longer period, such as a career, will show entirely wrong (and overly pessimistic) results.
Most stock indices nowadays are weighted by company market capitalization, (see for example the 2019 S&P 500 Return). However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index.
Price-weighted indices derive their actual trading prices by the trading price of the underlying company shares times an individual stock factor.
Price weighting is not a great indexing method. I'm not knocking it; it was perfect for its time. Price-weighting plus limiting the DJIA to only 30 stocks were reasonable steps to take when the Dow Jones Industrial Average began – in 1896.
Other sites take an even more pessimistic view... I won't. The DJIA actually tracks most large cap indices well.
Data is sourced from the Dow Jones Indices, owned by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Need more Dow Jones? We have some tools which help your research on the history of the index.
See DJIA returns in other years:
How do you see the Dow Jones Industrial Average performing in 2020?
The S&P 500 Price index returned 30.43% in 2019. Using a better calculation including dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 returned 33.07%.
The quoted numbers are returns all in one year (2019) – you bought the absolute open on January 2nd, 2019 and sold the closing trade on December 31, 2019. This is equivalent to the "year to date" return after the close on the last trading day of the year.
If you'd prefer a proxy for a one year span, the numbers buying at the December 31, 2018 closing price the returns would be 28.88% and 31.49%, respectively.
| Price From | Price | Dec 31 Close | Gain/Loss |
| Jan 2 Open | 2476.96 | 3230.78 | 30.43% |
| Dec 31 Close | 2506.85 | 3230.78 | 28.88% |
| Price From | Price | Dec 31 Close | Gain/Loss |
| Jan 2 Open | 4924.81 | 6553.57 | 33.07% |
| Dec 31 Close | 4984.22 | 6553.57 | 31.49% |
As always, the exact timeframe that you choose to compute the total return on an index doesn't matter too much (but stay consistent). However, computing dividends does matter.
Sure – the S&P 500's return was excellent either way. However, you need to account for the dividends you receive. If you reinvested dividends (as the total return number implies), all the better - that's compounding on compounding!
I've been banging the dividend drum for a while, and I won't stop today:
Discount price returns. Do the dividend math – or, hey, keep visiting DQYDJ!
The S&P 500 Price and Total Return index is owned by S&P Dow Jones Indices owns and maintains the S&P 500 Index. Since 1987 they maintain both indices, and you can find the S&P (now) 500 in various stages much further back.
DQYDJ has quite a collection of calculators and tools for you to use total returns for research or other purposes.
You can find both the S&P 500 and the Total Return at Yahoo!. Here's the overlay for 2019:
Just reinvesting dividends would have boosted your returns over 2.5 percentage points. If you only looked at price returns you'd inappropriately be looking at lower returns – which don't tell the whole story.
Either way – it was a great year! And much better than last year's losses (with and without the dividend calculation) Just keep those comparisons appropriate.
Here's to more massive gains in 2020 📈.
Other years:
What do you see the S&P 500 doing in 2020?
The 2018 bitcoin return was -73.56% compared to the US Dollar not including any transaction fees. At midnight UTC to open 2018 on January 1, bitcoin traded at $14,156.40 per coin. At midnight UTC to close December 2018 bitcoin traded at $3,742.70 per coin.
Compare the 3/4 loss on bitcoin in 2018 to the whopping 1,318% 2017 bitcoin return.
Last year we mentioned our opinion that bitcoin is a speculation not an investment – and received a surprising amount of pushback. Our opinion remains unchanged: bitcoin is not an investment with good prospects of storing wealth or anything close to set it and forget it.
Keep this point in mind: speculations do not need to be avoided completely!
On the left-right scale of safe to speculative asset allocation, speculations are even more volatile and uncertain than most of what we consider "investments". You have an array of options in everything from über-safe short-term government securities to mega speculative cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin.
The bottom line: if you are so inclined, speculate in bitcoin only with money you can afford to lose.
If you are young, have time and health to recover from a decline, and have the constitution to handle massive shocks to bitcoin value? Have at it.
We're not particularly bullish on bitcoin, but there is a non-zero chance that it still can offer life-changing gains in wealth. (Case in point: from Jan 1, 2016 you're looking at a crazy high +274.9% gain).
It can also, you know, follow the path of Enron. The point? We don't know how bitcoin will fare. If you want an investment idea, try index funds.
We used historical bitcoin price data from CoinMarketCap to compute the returns and create the graph for this article for 2017 and 2018 bitcoin returns.
If you enjoy volatility and can lose money allocated to bitcoin? Have some fun and go wild! You're the only one to blame if eventually you end up with $0.00... but it's at least possible you multiply the value man-fold.
That also applies to stocks and other assets traditionally assumed to be investments instead of speculations, by the way. Nothing is without risk; even safe government securities often lose money to the steady rise of inflation.
The 2018 NASDAQ return was -4.36% calculated from opening and closing prices. Using a superior calculation factoring in dividend reinvestment, the NASDAQ returned -3.33% in 2018.
The above numbers assume you bought the NASDAQ index at the open on January 2nd, 2018 and sold at the close on December 31, 2018. The numbers for buying at the December 29, 2017 closing price are -3.88% and -2.84%, respectively.
Here are the numbers for the 2018 NASDAQ price returns:
| Price From | Price | Dec 31 Close | Gain/Loss |
| Jan 2 Open | 6937.65 | 6635.28 | -4.36% |
| Dec 29 Close | 6903.39 | 6635.28 | -3.88% |
Reinvesting dividends on the NASDAQ in 2018 led to returns of:
| Dividend Reinvested From | Price | Dec 31 Close | Gain/Loss |
| Jan 2 Open | 7975.23 | 7709.91 | -3.33% |
| Dec 29 Close | 7935.29 | 7709.91 | -2.84% |
The NASDAQ has traditionally been a technology-heavy index. Technology companies tend towards a growth bias and often pay out fewer dividends than other economic sectors. As a result, of the most followed US indices, the NASDAQ throws off the fewest dividends.
That caveat aside, NASDAQ firms do pay dividends. They're not insignificant - 1.04% is an additional 51.2% over a average 40 year career. (That's also a reminder to minimize the fees you pay. Even small fees add up).
Dividends matter. Even on the NASDAQ.
This data comes from NASDAQ Indexes. They also maintain many specialized indexes - biotechnology, big companies, and others.
We can't match resources with the lists in the 2018 S&P 500 Return and 2018 Dow Jones Return posts for the NASDAQ.
We have one unique post on offer though. In 2014 we estimated how buying the peak of the Tech bubble in 1999-2000 would have returned:
Marketwatch can get you both the NASDAQ price and total return indices for easy graphing (and historical comparisons) . Here's how it trended in 2018:
Regardless of your choice of starting date, it was a tough year on the NASDAQ. Some individual stocks - including major names such as the FANGs of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google - were down well more than typical.
Also, remember: your mileage may vary. Slippage, dividend timing, fees, purchase timing, and other factors affect an investor's final numbers.
See NASDAQ returns in other years:
What do you see the NASDAQ doing in 2019? Want to predict a return?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned -5.97% in 2018. Using a calculation including dividend reinvestment, the Dow Jones returned -3.48% in 2018.
The numbers above match an index purchase on open on January 2nd, 2018 and sold at close on December 31, 2018. Alternatively, if you bought the closing price on December 29, 2017 the returns would be -5.63% and -3.48%, respectively.
(We source our numbers from Marketwatch. Note the DJIA total return index uses the same price for December 29 close and January 2 open.)
Here are the return numbers in tabular form for the Dow Jones Industrial Average index price:
| Price From | Price | Dec 31 Close | Gain/Loss |
| Jan 2 Open | 24809.35 | 23327.46 | -5.97% |
| Dec 29 Close | 24719.22 | 23327.46 | -5.63% |
And for the (superior) dividend-reinvested total return index:
| Dividend Reinvested From | Price | Dec 31 Close | Gain/Loss |
| Jan 2 Open | 53317.96 | 51462.77 | -3.48% |
| Dec 29 Close | 53317.96 | 51462.77 | -3.48% |
Pick either date; your choice of calendar square doesn't affect the core message: dividends matter. Even in a down year in a rough environment for investors.
Most other popular stock indices are weighted by company market capitalization, (e.g., see the 2018 S&P 500 Return). However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index.
Price-weighted indices derive their actual trading prices by the trading price of the underlying company shares which are each multiplied by some factor. Price weighting is not a great indexing method. (It was a huge invention for its time though.)
Setting aside construction, the Dow Jones is still extremely popular. Consisting of 30 of the top companies and covering most industries in America, changes in the Dow Jones drives clicks, views, and financial news. Its 30 companies are among the largest in America - consequently the DJIA pays out more dividends than most other widely tracked indices.
DIA is the most popular Dow Jones ETF if you are interested in investing. There are quality mutual funds as well.
Data is sourced from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Total Return Index, maintained and owned by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Need more Dow Jones? We have some tools which help your research on the history of the index.
Here's the Dow Jones Industrial Average return chart for 2018 for price performance and with dividends reinvested.
2018 was a rough year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Of course, even down your mileage may vary. Taxes, slippage, timing, fees, availability and other factors would change the exact return number you see even if you bought on one of the selected dates.
However, if you reinvested your DJIA dividends you did better than using your checks for kindling.
See DJIA returns in other years:
How do you see the Dow Jones Industrial Average performing in 2019?
The S&P 500 Price index returned -6.59% in 2018. Using a better calculation which includes dividend reinvestment, the S&P 500 returned -4.75%.
The quoted numbers require that you bought the opening trade on January 2nd, 2018 and sold the closing trade on December 31, 2018. If you'd prefer the numbers buying at the December 29, 2017 closing price the returns would be -6.24% and -4.38%, respectively.
For the index price returns, here's the breakdown:
| Price From | Price | Dec 31 Close | Gain/Loss |
| Jan 2 Open | 2683.73 | 2506.85 | -6.59% |
| Dec 29 Close | 2673.61 | 2506.85 | -6.24% |
For the index dividend-reinvested returns, here are the details:
| Dividend Reinvested From | Price | Dec 31 Close | Gain/Loss |
| Jan 2 Open | 5232.72 | 4984.22 | -4.75% |
| Dec 29 Close | 5212.76 | 4984.22 | -4.38% |
Whichever set of return time-spans you prefer (and it doesn't really matter), the message this year remains the same: dividends matter. Neither return quote looks particularly healthy, but it's important not to discard dividends to better match the performance of actual investors.
Simply quoting price returns without regard to real returns due to the effects of reinvesting funds doesn't reveal the true return on an investment. Don't accept price returns at face value.
S&P Dow Jones Indices owns and maintains the S&P 500 Index. They have both the classic S&P 500 price index as well as the dividend reinvested numbers (from 1987 forward).
Want more than this post can give you? While we don't (yet?) have a daily return calculator, we have some monthly resolution calculators for the S&P 500:
You can find both the S&P 500 and the Total Return at Marketwatch. Here's the overlay for 2018:
Factoring in dividends and reinvestment moved the return from a mid 6%s loss to under 5%. While no investor perfectly timed openings and closing (and all faced fees and taxes!) it's important to attempt to factor in the effects of dividends.
In fact, in 2018 and 2019 many brokerage accounts allow you to automatically set up dividend reinvestment on your stocks and funds. Some will even do it for free and account for fractional shares.
Make sure you know where your dividends end up! Good luck in 2019.
Other years:
What do you see the S&P 500 doing in 2019?
The 2017 Bitcoin return was +1,318% not including any transaction fees. At midnight UTC after 12/31/2016 bitcoin traded at 998.33 a coin and one year later traded at 14,156.4 a coin.
Bitcoin is a digital currency built on top of a public, digital ledger known as a blockchain. Bitcoin is 'mined' by miners incorporating recent transactions into a collection called a block while searching for a nonce. A target nonce, or number used once, is added to the current block where the block is hashed with a result less than a specific target (read: a hash with leading zeros).
If a suitable nonce is found, the miner distributes it for others to verify. The crypto bit in cryptocurrency comes from the usage of cryptographic hash functions. These functions are one-way or non-reversible - that is, they are easy to verify, but believed "impossible" (read: would take an improbably long time) to invert. SHA-256, in particular, backs the proof of work system in bitcoin and allows miners to verify a nonce.
The proof of work system and the history represented by the blockchain are what, in theory, back digital currency with value. However, the practical value of bitcoin comes from market participant agreement on the current trading price. As long as bitcoin can be exchanged for goods and necessities – or another thing that can – it has a value. Often we use its exchange rate with the dollar as a useful abstraction to help readers understand that current value.
Here are the dollar price returns on bitcoin in 2017:
| Price Return | Open | Close | Gain |
| Jan 1, 2017 Start (Midnight UTC) | 998.33 | 14156.4 | 1318.01% |
A 1,318% gain in a single year is an off-the-chart return for any asset class. Recall that an investment in the S&P 500 returned around 21.14% in 2017. Stated another way, one dollar in the S&P 500 would have grown to $1.21 by the end of the year while a dollar in bitcoin would have grown to $14.18.
Growth of a dollar in the S&P 500 and Bitcoin in 2017
Even though you can 'invest' your money in bitcoin, it's much closer to speculation than traditional investment (don't let this article's category fool you). Whether or not you have confidence in the value of the digital currency ecosystem or the underling mechanisms (such as the blockchain), digital currencies are extremely volatile. They are not appropriate for holding in a traditional asset allocation and by the traditional understanding of an "investment".
That warning aside, you can speculate in bitcoin with money you can afford to lose. Many bitcoin holders (or HODLers, as they prefer to be called) are young and have the time to make up for any speculative losses. Before allocating any of your portfolio to any digital currency, consider your own capacity to recover and whether or not you'll need the money.
As we went to press, bitcoin's current performance illustrates how quickly fortunes can change. Bitcoin is down over 30% in 30 days, penalizing latecomers to the currency. While still up thousands of percentage points in a relatively short time-frame (just a few years), you can't buy in the past – you can only get in during the present. Need an investment idea? Here's a vote for index funds.
We used historical bitcoin price data from CoinMarketCap to compute the returns and create the graph for this article. S&P 500 returns are sourced from S&P Dow Jones Indices.
We don't currently have any tools or calculators on site which serve digital currency communities. Watch this space though, that's probably going to change.
Just like your fantasy football league (which also isn't an investment), speculation doesn't have to mean 'avoid entirely'. There is an undeniable psychological thrill from holding extremely volatile assets such as bitcoin and other digital currencies.
If you enjoy the volatility and can lose the money you allocate? Do your due diligence and have some fun - but know there's no one to blame but yourself if the price settles at $0.00.
To a lesser degree, that also applies to stocks and other assets traditionally assumed to be investments instead of speculations. Of course, traditional currencies do sometimes fail, stocks go to zero, and bonds don't pay out or lose to inflation. However, extreme volatility in digital currencies implies those scenarios are more likely.
To summarize: always be careful with your money; you're the best steward of your own money and judge of risk tolerance. Be particularly careful before speculating in bitcoin or other "alternate" coins (alt-coins).
Bitcoin returns in other years:
What do you see bitcoin doing in 2018? Want to predict a return?
The S&P 500 and the broader equity markets continue to outperform and have seen annual inflation-adjusted 15.8% returns from March 2009 through the end of December 2017. More recently, from November 2016 to January 2017, the S&P 500 has returned 22.3% in total.
I started with each year's inflation adjusted S&P 500 return, inflation-adjusted from data by Robert Shiller dating back to 1871. DQYDJ has a S&P 500 return calculator here.
The returns are vastly different, even if returns will average out to 6%-10% per year. This variance is why sequence risk is a major threat to early retirement, where a few very negative years hit a retiree in early retirement years even if they would be safe from later declines.
Another consequence of this is that very rarely will the stock market return "around" any number. Thus, when a market predictor says "the market will return 3% next year", it is very unlikely that it will return exactly 3%. The "prediction" (if it is worth anything) is best thought of as "the least wrong" estimate.
Monthly data would show an even wider variance, even if the absolute numbers of the returns are lower (sadly no month ever returned 40%).
As of this writing, the S&P 500 has returned 2.72% in 2018, putting it right at the 36th percentile for annual returns. Most years it's beating are negative years (as can be seen on the chart). Given we are only 8 trading days into the year out of ~252, we are on pace for a 132.9% return this year. (You can count on that!)
Some fun S&P 500 return facts:
Returns are notoriously difficult to project. People have been calling market ceilings forever, starting heavily during 2011 in the current market cycle.
The problem with many of these predictions are the timing and the confidence of the claim. Certainly, a case can be made for stocks being overpriced but it is important to mind the difficulty in predicting the exact timing of a potential turn and the magnitude of the turn.
When projecting future returns for your portfolio, it is most appropriate to use a wide distribution of returns. You may have a strong belief about a mean return estimate (say, 7% a year over a series of years), but it is helpful to show how sensitive portfolios are to either different mean estimates (say, if the return drops to 4% on average) or to a series of very bad years.
This can be modeled using some of the traditional returns. For example, look at the chart up above, where 25% of annual returns were above 21.3% and another 25% were above 8.2%.
In short, doubt the certainty of any prediction within a tight timeframe. You can play around with annual returns in any 12 month rolling period with our S&P 500 Historical Return Calculator.
Cheers,
Cameron Daniels
The 2017 NASDAQ return was +27.24% calculated from the price index. Using a better calculation which factors in dividend reinvestment, the NASDAQ returned +28.62% in 2017.
The above numbers assume you bought the NASDAQ index on January 3rd, 2017 and sold at close on December 29, 2017. The numbers for buying at the December 30, 2016 closing price are +28.24% and +29.64%, respectively.
Here are the price returns on the index:
| Price Return | Open | Close | Gain |
| Jan 3, 2017 Start | 5425.62 | 6903.39 | 27.24% |
| Dec 30, 2016 End | 5383.12 | 6903.39 | 28.24% |
Here are the NASDAQ dividend reinvested returns:
| Dividend Reinvested Return | Open | Close | Gain |
| Jan 3, 2017 Start | 6169.49 | 7935.29 | 28.62% |
| Dec 30, 2016 End | 6121.12 | 7935.29 | 29.64% |
Traditionally, the NASDAQ has been a technology-heavy index. Further, technology companies have a growth bias and tend to pay out fewer dividends than other economic sectors.
That important caveat aside, NASDAQ firms do pay dividends - depending on your choice of start date, reinvesting would have added around 1.4% to your annual return in 2017. That's not nothing - 1.4% is an additional 74.4% over an average 40 year career. (As an aside, it's also a reminder to minimize the fees you pay).
Once again: dividends matter. Even with a tech-heavy index.
These numbers come from NASDAQ Indexes. They also have a number of specialized indexes - biotechnology, big companies, and the like.
We can't match the number of additional resources we listed in the 2017 S&P 500 Return and 2017 Dow Jones Return posts for the NASDAQ. However, in 2014 we estimated how buying the peak of the Tech bubble in 1999-2000 would have turned out:
We also compared the technology bubble to the (since-deflated) Shanghai Composite Bubble:
2017 NASDAQ Return and Dividend Reinvested Return
The Dow Jones Industrial Average returned +24.39% in 2017. Using a calculation which includes dividend reinvestment, the Dow Jones returned +28.11%.
Those numbers from the introduction are accurate for an index purchase on January 3rd, 2017 sold at close on December 29, 2017. Alternatively, if you bought the closing price on December 30, 2016 the returns would be +25.08% and +28.11%, respectively.
Here are the price returns in table form, including both price and dividend reinvested numbers:
| Price Return | Open | Close | Gain |
| Jan 3, 2017 Start | 19872.86 | 24719.22 | 24.39% |
| Dec 30, 2016 End | 19762.6 | 24719.22 | 25.08% |
And here are the dividend reinvested returns again for both:
| Dividend Reinvested Return | Open | Close | Gain |
| Jan 3, 2017 Start | 41619.65 | 53317.96 | 28.11% |
| Dec 30, 2016 End | 41619.65 | 53317.96 | 28.11% |
(We source our numbers from Marketwatch - as we went to press the dividend reinvested numbers matched for both dates.)
Whichever date you choose, we can't improve our favorite message: dividends matter. Although 25% or 28% are both huge returns, the 28% number is the most accurate to quote. You simply can't ignore the effect of dividends on stock market returns and it's surprising how commonly this simple math is neglected.
As compared to other popular indices which are weighted by company market capitalization, (e.g., see the 2017 S&P 500 Return) the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index. Price-weighted indices derive their actual trading prices by the trading price of the underlying company shares which are each multiplied by some factor. Price weighting isn't a good method of creating indices even though it was an excellent invention for its time.
Setting aside matters of construction, the Dow Jones is still an extremely popular index. Consisting of 30 of the top companies in America and representing most industries, Dow Jones volatility can drive financial news like no other index. Those 30 companies are among the largest in America - consequently the DJIA pays out more dividends than most other indices.
It's possible to invest in an ETF that tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average. DIA is the most popular Dow Jones ETF. There are a few quality mutual funds as well.
Data is from the Dow Jones Industrial Average Total Return Index, from S&P Dow Jones Indices. The chart hails from Marketwatch.
Want more on the Dow Jones Industrial Average? We have a couple tools which can help you research the history of the index.
Here's the Dow Jones Industrial Average return chart for 2017 for price performance and with dividends reinvested.
2017 was an epic year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It was in the top 22% of the set of all rolling 12-month returns on the Dow.
As we always say, though, your mileage may vary. Varied effects from taxes, slippage, timing, fees, availability and other factors would change the exact number you see. However, if you reinvested your DJIA dividends - or even if you threw them away - you had a great year.
See DJIA returns in other years:
How do you see the Dow Jones Industrial Average performing in 2018?